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Authors

Paul Chang, Nasrulloh Loka, Daolang Huang, Ulpu Remes, Samuel Kaski, and Luigi Acerbi 

Abstract

Amortized meta-learning methods based on pre-training have propelled fields like natural language processing and vision. Transformer-based neural processes and their variants are leading models for probabilistic meta-learning with a tractable objective. Often trained on synthetic data, these models implicitly capture essential latent information in the data-generation process. However, existing methods do not allow users to flexibly inject (condition on) and extract (predict) this probabilistic latent information at runtime, which is key to many tasks.We introduce the Amortized Conditioning Engine (ACE), a new transformer-based meta-learning model that explicitly represents latent variables of interest. ACE affords conditioning on both observed data and interpretable latent variables, the inclusion of priors at runtime, and outputs predictive distributions for discrete and continuous data and latents. We show ACE's practical utility across diverse tasks such as image completion and classification, Bayesian optimization, and simulation-based inference, demonstrating how a general conditioning framework can replace task-specific solutions.

Authors

Ayush Bharti, Daolang Huang, Samuel Kaski, and Francois-Xavier Briol

Abstract

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex models, and the fact that this cost often depends on parameter values. We therefore propose cost-aware SBI methods which can significantly reduce the cost of existing sampling-based SBI methods, such as neural SBI and approximate Bayesian computation. This is achieved through a combination of rejection and self-normalised importance sampling, which significantly reduces the number of expensive simulations needed. Our approach is studied extensively on models from epidemiology to telecommunications engineering, where we obtain significant reductions in the overall cost of inference.

Authors

Lei You, Lele Cao, Mattias Nilsson, Bo Zhao, and Lei Lei 

Abstract

Counterfactual explanations (CE) are the de facto method of providing insight and interpretability in black-box decision-making models by identifying alternative input instances that lead to different outcomes. This paper extends the concept of CE to a distributional context, broadening the scope from individual data points to entire input and output distributions, named distributional counterfactual explanation (DCE). In DCE, we take the stakeholder's perspective and shift focus to analyzing the distributional properties of the factual and counterfactual, drawing parallels to the classical approach of assessing individual instances and their resulting decisions. We leverage optimal transport (OT) to frame a chance-constrained optimization problem, aiming to derive a counterfactual distribution that closely aligns with its factual counterpart, substantiated by statistical confidence. Our proposed optimization method, Discount, strategically balances this confidence in both the input and output distributions. This algorithm is accompanied by an analysis of its convergence rate. The efficacy of our proposed method is substantiated through a series of quantitative and qualitative experiments, highlighting its potential to provide deep insights into decision-making models.

Authors

MÃ¥ns Magnusson, Jakob Torgander, Paul Bürkner, Lu Zhang, Bob Carpenter, and Aki Vehtari 

Abstract

The general applicability and robustness of posterior inference algorithms is critical to widely used probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, PyMC, Pyro, and Turing.jl. When designing a new inference algorithm, whether it involves Monte Carlo sampling or variational approximation, the fundamental problem is evaluating its accuracy and efficiency across a range of representative target posteriors. To solve this problem, we propose posteriordb, a database of models and data sets defining target densities along with reference Monte Carlo draws. We further provide a guide to the best practices in using posteriordb for algorithm evaluation and comparison. To provide a wide range of realistic posteriors, posteriordb currently comprises 120 representative models with data, and has been instrumental in developing several inference algorithms.

Authors

Markus Heinonen, Ba-Hien Tran, Michael Kampffmeyer, and Maurizio Filippone 

Abstract

Introducing training-time augmentations is a key technique to enhance generalization and prepare deep neural networks against test-time corruptions. Inspired by the success of generative diffusion models, we propose a novel approach of coupling data mollification, in the form of image noising and blurring, with label smoothing to align predicted label confidences with image degradation. The method is simple to implement, introduces negligible overheads, and can be combined with existing augmentations. We demonstrate improved robustness and uncertainty quantification on the corrupted image benchmarks of CIFAR, TinyImageNet and ImageNet datasets.

Selected for Oral presentation - top 2% of all submissions

Authors

RafaÅ‚ Karczewski, Samuel Kaski, Markus Heinonen, and Vikas Garg 

Abstract

Several generative models with elaborate training and sampling procedures have been proposed to accelerate structure-based drug design (SBDD); however, their empirical performance turns out to be suboptimal. We seek to better understand this phenomenon from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Since most of these models apply graph neural networks (GNNs), one may suspect that they inherit the representational limitations of GNNs. We analyze this aspect, establishing the first such results for protein-ligand complexes. A plausible counterview may attribute the underperformance of these models to their excessive parameterizations, inducing expressivity at the expense of generalization. We investigate this possibility with a simple metric-aware approach that learns an economical surrogate for affinity to infer an unlabelled molecular graph and optimizes for labels conditioned on this graph and molecular properties. The resulting model achieves state-of-the-art results using 100x fewer trainable parameters and affords up to 1000x speedup. Collectively, our findings underscore the need to reassess and redirect the existing paradigm and efforts for SBDD. Code is available at https://github.com/rafalkarczewski/SimpleSBDD.

Authors

Manuel Haussmann, Tran Minh Son Le, Viivi Halla-aho, Samu Kurki, Jussi Leinonen, Miika Koskinen, Samuel Kaski, and Harri Lähdesmäki

Abstract

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can be a viable alternative but require access to an external control group. We propose an identifiable deep latent-variable model for this scenario that can also account for missing covariate observations by modeling their structured missingness patterns. Our method uses amortized variational inference to learn both group-specific and identifiable shared latent representations, which can subsequently be used for (i) patient matching if treatment outcomes are not available for the treatment group, or for (ii) direct treatment effect estimation assuming outcomes are available for both groups. We evaluate the model on a public benchmark as well as on a data set consisting of a published RCT study and real-world electronic health records. Compared to previous methods, our results show improved performance both for direct treatment effect estimation as well as for effect estimation via patient matching.

Authors

Prakhar Verma, Vincent Adam, and Arno Solin

Abstract

Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with latent processes endowed with a non-linear diffusion process prior are intractable problems. We build upon work within variational inference approximating the posterior process as a linear diffusion process and point out pathologies in the approach. We propose an alternative parameterization of the Gaussian variational process using a site-based exponential family description. This allows us to trade a slow inference algorithm with fixed-point iterations for a fast algorithm for convex optimization akin to natural gradient descent, which also provides a better objective for the learning of model parameters